{"id":431,"date":"2020-05-01T13:40:22","date_gmt":"2020-05-01T13:40:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.invest19.com\/blog\/?p=431"},"modified":"2020-05-01T13:45:17","modified_gmt":"2020-05-01T13:45:17","slug":"is-stock-market-standing-at-next-52-weeks-high","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.invest19.com\/blog\/is-stock-market-standing-at-next-52-weeks-high\/","title":{"rendered":"Is Stock Market Standing at Next 52-Weeks High?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div style=\"margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;\" class=\"sharethis-inline-share-buttons\" ><\/div>\n<p>The stock\nmarket of Asia\u2019s third-largest economy i.e. India has bounced back to the bull\nterritory when the stocks jumped more than 3 per cent tracking positive global\ncues on Thursday, April 30, 2020. If we take a look at the last week\u2019s market,\nthe domestic indices \u2013 NIFTY &amp; SENSEX succeed in trimming some losses since\nFebruary when the stock market first went into panic mode. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The\ndomestic shares extended gains for the fourth straight session and the strength\nwas witnessed in the day-by-day closing of indices on higher than high-levels in\nthe market. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Thursday\u2019s\nadvance has helped NIFTY to reach the intraday high of 9889.05 levels and made\nclose to 9859.90 levels at the end-of-the-day. However, under normal\ncircumstances, the market should be in correction phase by now but it isn\u2019t. It\nmeans, investors\u2019 confidence has been lifted and they are holding onto their\ninvestments instead of profit booking in expecting that the rally will continue\nin future. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In our\nprevious article, <strong>we forecasted an up rally in the market near the levels of\n8,500 and given investment target of 10,000 levels. The prediction was right as\nthe market is around 9800-9900 levels. But, the coronavirus is still looming\nover the capital markets and the latest forecast depicts that the market is yet\nto see the worse.<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As per the <strong>Kaushlendra\nSingh Sengar, Founder &amp; CEO @Invest19<\/strong>, <em>\u201cThe weakness in the coronavirus dented-market will deepen further\nin future and on Monday, May 04, 2020, the SENSEX is likely to see a correction\nof more than 2000 points.\u201d <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While at\nit, he also mentioned that the market is standing at the high and the current\nlevels could be the next 52-weeks high for domestic indices.&nbsp; <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Below he has shared his opinion on the economic outlook and stock market outlook for coming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"counter-hierarchy counter-decimal ez-toc-grey\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\"><i class=\"ez-toc-glyphicon ez-toc-icon-toggle\"><\/i><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class=\"ez-toc-list\"><li><a href=\"#Global_Economic_Outlook\" title=\"Global Economic Outlook\">Global Economic Outlook<\/a><ul><li><a href=\"#Major_Concerns_may_lead_the_world_in_the_Great_Recession\" title=\"Major Concerns may lead the world in the\nGreat Recession\">Major Concerns may lead the world in the\nGreat Recession<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li><a href=\"#Extensions_on_Covid-19_lockdowns_across_the_world\" title=\"Extensions on Covid-19 lockdowns across the world\">Extensions on Covid-19 lockdowns across the world<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#GLOBAL_MACRO_OUTLOOK_THE_PERSPECTIVE_TO_JUSTIFY_CURRENT_SCENARIO\" title=\"GLOBAL MACRO OUTLOOK: THE PERSPECTIVE TO\nJUSTIFY CURRENT SCENARIO\">GLOBAL MACRO OUTLOOK: THE PERSPECTIVE TO\nJUSTIFY CURRENT SCENARIO<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#INDIAN_SECTORAL_OUTLOOK_THE_PERSPECTIVE_TO_JUSTIFY_CURRENT_SCENARIO\" title=\"INDIAN SECTORAL OUTLOOK: THE PERSPECTIVE TO JUSTIFY CURRENT SCENARIO\">INDIAN SECTORAL OUTLOOK: THE PERSPECTIVE TO JUSTIFY CURRENT SCENARIO<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#Technical_Aspects\" title=\"Technical Aspects \">Technical Aspects <\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#Coronavirus_Case_Updates\" title=\"Coronavirus Case Updates\">Coronavirus Case Updates<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Global Economic Outlook<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>On the global economic impact, Mr\nKaushlendra Singh Sengar said it is becoming clearer due to the pandemic and\nthis hit hard the global as well as domestic equity markets. Lockdown across\nthe globe has disrupted the economies and it is being estimated that <strong>global\nGDP which may be shrunk by more than 1%<\/strong>. On the other end due to closed\neconomies &amp; business around the globe world can go into a deep recession.\nThe COVID-19 outbreak in China has disrupted global supply chains as quarantine\nand lockdown measures are following to control the spread of the virus. As a\nresult, India is among the top 15 economies which will most be impacted by the\ncorona-related production slowdown around the globe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Major Concerns may lead the world in the\nGreat Recession<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Increasing concerns of CoronaVirus.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, considering the current\ncircumstances and visible indications of an economic slowdown in India,\nincreasing the number of infected cases and death rates, expectations to extend\nthe lockdown measure further from 3rd May signalling Indian equities are firmly\nentering into a bear market as the market anticipated more than a month of\nlockdown in India <strong>the GDP growth rate maybe 2.1% in negative<\/strong> at the end\nof June this year, which would be <strong>lowest GDP rate in nearly 41 years<\/strong>.\nWhile, virus relief stimulus package is yet to decide between FM and PM,\nheadlines as on 26<sup>th<\/sup> April. Meanwhile, the World Health Organization\n(WHO) warned about the Coronavirus stating <strong>it will remain extremely\ndangerous and there is no sign of the end of this pandemic any soon.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Panic in the Oil Market.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>One more recent historic collapse in\noil prices added to fears of a virus-induced recession whereas the May WTI\ncontract closed at -$37.6 per bbl, the first negative settle ever i.e, on 20<sup>th<\/sup>\nApril 2020. Negative oil prices mean that producers are effectively willing to\npay someone to move their crude amidst on-going COVID-19 disease raised demand\ndestruction and the storage constraints at Cushing, which is expected to enter the\nrecessionary zone in 2020 as countries have shut down business activity to\nfight the COVID-19 pandemic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Wiped out liquidity in the market and\nthe mini bubble will explode.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In a signal that India\u2019s high-rated\ncompanies are planning for the long pull, they are choosing for a moratorium on\ndebt servicing. Experts say the focus is on safeguarding liquidity as there is\nuncertainty over the duration and influence of the more than a month-long\ncountrywide lockdown enforced to stop the spread of the pandemic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Senior Managers from the rating\nindustry, who have been obtaining reports from companies, say some companies\nwith ratings as high as \u2018AAA\u2019 have also opted the option for a moratorium.\nCompanies have a higher rating for their capabilities to service debt on time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>US threatening of enforcing new\ntariffs on China amid Coronavirus.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The recent news from the US\nadministration can also take the market on the downside. U.S. President Donald\nTrump said on Thursday his trade deal with China was now of lesser importance\nthan the coronavirus pandemic and he warned new tariffs on Beijing, as his\nadministration constructed retaliatory actions over the outburst.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Trump&#8217;s whetted speech against China\nsignalled his escalating frustration with Beijing over the pandemic, which has\ncost tens of thousands of lives in the United States only, triggered an\neconomic contraction and warned his prospects of re-election in November. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Rising Jobless Claims Data.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>First-time ever this many people of\nUS claimed for unemployment insurance which stands at 3.84 million yesterday as\nthe surge of economic pain persists, even though the worst looks to be in the\npast, according to Labor Department figures Thursday. Economists surveyed by\nDow Jones had been looking for 3.5 million. Jobless claims for the week ended\nApril 25 came in at the lowest level since March 21 but bring the rolling\nsix-week total to 30.3 million as part of the worst employment crisis in U.S.\nhistory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Last but not least.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As per one of the newspapers of the UK\nraised concerns about WORLD WAR 3 fears can to be explored across the globe\njust a few days into 2020 and now they have been triggered again. The US-China\nrelationship has been particularly strained in recent years. A trade deal\nbetween the two countries would seem to alleviate some tensions but\nimplementation remains in question. Currently, the world\u2019s two largest\neconomies are locked in a bitter trade battle. The dispute, which has simmered\nfor nearly 18 months, has seen the US and China impose tariffs on hundreds of\nbillions of dollars, worth of one another\u2019s goods. Now as per the sources US\nadministration again planning to enforce some tariffs on China. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Extensions on Covid-19 lockdowns across the world<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"648\" height=\"320\" src=\"https:\/\/www.invest19.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/image.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-432\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.invest19.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/image.png 648w, https:\/\/www.invest19.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/image-300x148.png 300w, https:\/\/www.invest19.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/image-520x257.png 520w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 648px) 100vw, 648px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>One more recent historic collapse in\noil prices added to fears of a virus-induced recession whereas the May WpTI\ncontract closed at -$37.6 per bbl, the first negative settle ever i.e, on 22<sup>nd<\/sup>\nApril 2020. Negative oil prices mean that producers are effectively willing to\npay someone to move their crude amidst on-going COVID-19 disease raised demand\ndestruction and the storage constraints at Cushing, which is expected to enter the\nrecessionary zone in 2020 as countries have shut down business activity to\nfight the COVID-19 pandemic. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">GLOBAL MACRO OUTLOOK: THE PERSPECTIVE TO\nJUSTIFY CURRENT SCENARIO<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"447\" height=\"535\" src=\"https:\/\/www.invest19.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/image-1.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-433\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.invest19.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/image-1.png 447w, https:\/\/www.invest19.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/image-1-251x300.png 251w, https:\/\/www.invest19.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/image-1-334x400.png 334w, https:\/\/www.invest19.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/image-1-418x500.png 418w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 447px) 100vw, 447px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"570\" height=\"485\" src=\"https:\/\/www.invest19.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/image-2.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-434\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.invest19.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/image-2.png 570w, https:\/\/www.invest19.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/image-2-300x255.png 300w, https:\/\/www.invest19.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/image-2-470x400.png 470w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 570px) 100vw, 570px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">INDIAN SECTORAL OUTLOOK: THE PERSPECTIVE TO JUSTIFY CURRENT SCENARIO<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"593\" height=\"494\" src=\"https:\/\/www.invest19.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/image-3.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-435\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.invest19.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/image-3.png 593w, https:\/\/www.invest19.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/image-3-300x250.png 300w, https:\/\/www.invest19.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/image-3-480x400.png 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 593px) 100vw, 593px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Technical Aspects <\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"624\" height=\"373\" src=\"https:\/\/www.invest19.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/image-4.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-436\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.invest19.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/image-4.png 624w, https:\/\/www.invest19.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/image-4-300x179.png 300w, https:\/\/www.invest19.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/image-4-520x311.png 520w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Moreover, <strong>Kaushlendra Singh Sengar<\/strong> said technically the market aspect that the numbers of Indian benchmark Indices, as we all know Nifty has already lost over one-third of its value from highest closing levels of 12,352 recorded on 14<sup>th<\/sup> January 2020 to 7,511 levels marked on 24<sup>th<\/sup> March 2020. The Nifty Midcap100 index has fallen more than 38% during this period and VIX (Volatility Index) has surged over 600%, which is the highest level since 2009 that has already created pressure in the market. After working on the current scenario, technically on the monthly chart, the Fibonacci retracement in Nifty from the year October\u2019 2008, which is considered as a financial crisis to January 2020 where Covid-19&nbsp; pandemic occurred, the 61.80% is one of the important levels, which acts as a major support level for the Index that is placed around 6,150. <strong>So, we can say that Nifty may retrace to the downside levels of 6200 and 6100 respectively.<\/strong> Additionally, the indicator 200-days simple moving average is also indicating that the Nifty may slip to the levels of 6,150. Indicator, ADX line is trading above 24.35 signals the potential strength on the trend. Hence, we can assume that the worst-case Nifty level of 6,140 and best-case scenario of 10,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"624\" height=\"368\" src=\"https:\/\/www.invest19.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/image-5.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-437\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.invest19.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/image-5.png 624w, https:\/\/www.invest19.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/image-5-300x177.png 300w, https:\/\/www.invest19.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/image-5-520x307.png 520w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>As per the above-given chart, rising\nwedge is formed on the daily chart. Once market will close below the horizontal\nline as once the level of 9250 will breach on the downside successfully then the\nmarket will give steep fall and as per the given indicators, it will fall to\naforesaid levels of 6150 marks.&nbsp; <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Coronavirus Case Updates<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The COVID-19 pandemic continues to\nmake headlines as on the 1st May 2020 around the globe total no. of infected\nrose to 3.26 million &amp; it claimed more than 2.33 lacks lives around the\nglobe. The US can be said currently an epidemic centre with total cases crossed\n1.1 million and in the USA only it claimed 63,700 lives there. China the mainland\nreported 84,373 total cases while 4,643 total causalities. India is gradually\nfalling into the swamp. According to Ministry of Health and Family Welfare data\nof India, the total number of cases in India has crossed 35,000 as of May 01,\nincluding more than 26,000 active cases, 1147 deaths, with almost 9,000 cured\nor discharged patients. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Now finishing the story with the question, that what kind of a world or\neconomy can we expect after the pandemic?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Before this Covid-19 pandemic, the\nglobal economy has already faced severe problems from World War I to SARS, Avian\nInfluenza, Ebola to Zika epidemics, the market has always overreacted to the\ncrisis, as a result, steep valuations of the benchmark indices have been\nobserved, which has left investors worried. But this is pandemic and in history\nworldwide lockdown happens for the first time. History repeats itself; this is the\ntime-tested period for investors and the market to investing success. Hence, we\nrecommend you make your investing decisions strategically because the current\nrecovery of 15% in Indian equity from 7500 levels to 9800 levels is a trap as\nNifty chart is forming \u2018Deadcat\u2019 bounce, which is a temporary recovery. If we\ngo back to the 2008 recession, we check the same scenario after a bounce-back\nthe market has witnessed a steep fall and entered into the bear zone. So be\ncareful before you deploy your cash unnecessary at this higher 9,800\nlevels.&nbsp; &nbsp;<\/p>\n<div class='epvc-post-count'><span class='epvc-eye'><\/span>  <span class=\"epvc-count\"> 3,432<\/span><\/div><div class=\"pld-like-dislike-wrap pld-template-1\">\n    <div class=\"pld-like-wrap  pld-common-wrap\">\n    <a href=\"javascript:void(0);\" class=\"pld-like-trigger pld-like-dislike-trigger \" title=\"\" data-post-id=\"431\" data-trigger-type=\"like\" data-restriction=\"ip\" data-ip-check=\"0\" data-user-check=\"1\">\n                        <i class=\"fas fa-thumbs-up\"><\/i>\n                    <\/a>\n    <span class=\"pld-like-count-wrap pld-count-wrap\">7    <\/span>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The stock market of Asia\u2019s third-largest economy i.e. India has bounced back to the bull territory when the stocks jumped more than 3 per cent [&hellip;] <span class=\"read-more-link\"><a class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/www.invest19.com\/blog\/is-stock-market-standing-at-next-52-weeks-high\/\">Read More<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":440,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,48,7,10],"tags":[17,94,108,109,110],"class_list":["post-431","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-stock-market","category-economy","category-investment","category-featured","tag-stock-investing","tag-stock-market","tag-kaushlendra-singh-sengar","tag-nifty-52-week-high","tag-sensex"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.invest19.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/431","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.invest19.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.invest19.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.invest19.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.invest19.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=431"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.invest19.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/431\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":441,"href":"https:\/\/www.invest19.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/431\/revisions\/441"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.invest19.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/440"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.invest19.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=431"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.invest19.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=431"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.invest19.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=431"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}