People say that a custom relies upon a series of similar events which have been in past and world economy is aware with two consecutive terms of U.S. presidents. One doesn’t need to go back 50 years and scrutinize the complete statistics of U.S. Presidents tenure as only a glimpse of recent years is enough to claim the statement. Last three U.S Presidents: Bill Clinton, George W Bush, Barak Obama had remained presidents for 2 terms in 1993-2001, 2001-2009, 2009-2017 respectively, which seems that U.S. population believes in giving enough time to their presidents to prove themselves worthy.
This time it’s different
Democratic-led Joe Biden seems catching more confidence this time as grey market is favoring for his win after Donald Trump’s ineffectiveness in achieving the standard macros. As per the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Employment rate has fallen substantially to 56.60% (in Sep 2020) from 60% (in 2017) while U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data ( in which people registers them for jobless claims for the very first time) has increased to 751k in September 2020. There is no denying the fact U.S. macroeconomic data are in serious trouble and economic indicators are not painting a rosy picture of future, which has reduced the probability of U.S. President Donald Trump to win consecutively.
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What people are missing in Trump’s tenure?
The primary poll for U.S. Presidential election is clearly favoring Joe Biden for Presidential candidate as administration of Trump failed to keep the momentum of macroeconomic indicators intact. While, one should not forget that the era of former presidents didn’t face the epidemic of Coronavirus in U.S. Nor they had faced zero prices of crude oil and accelerated trade tensions between U.S. and China. Unexpected calamites have no prior theory of shields to counter and U.S. President Donald Trump has faced them boldly.
Labor data has always been a considered a major benchmark to determine the strength of U.S. economy. In the pre-Covid epidemic in U.S., U.S. Employment data was standing at 61.2% higher the highest level of 59.6% which was recorded in times when Barak Obama was handling the Presidential chair. While, in the case of Initial Jobless claims, U.S. President Trump has maintained the status quo. Moreover, the slippages in both macro-economic data are reaching their pre-Covid levels quickly. People have started living their life in a pre-covid manner and an uncertainty in final poll results is highly expected.